Eurovision Song Contest, 2024

[Chrill]

I'm warming up to the slightly horrifyng Bambie Thug from Ireland. The song is mad, but their vocals are brilliant. If the performance in Malmö is good enough, they can definitely go far.

[Chrill]

Europapa is climbing in the odds, now sitting at 4th with 8% winning chance. I don't see it. There are too many "ploy" entries this year, nobody will be a grand slam like Cha Cha Cha was last year. Croatia, Netherlands, Estonia, Finland, and probably Ireland compete for the same votes.

That's why I still hold Switzerland as a winner, they will attract both jury and televoting. Sweden, as always, will get some decent jury votes but struggle with the viewers.

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Europapa is climbing in the odds, now sitting at 4th with 8% winning chance.

Eurovision youtube channel do 'top 20' videos where they go through the top 20 viewed videos, and Europapa came out as #1 viewed on the last one. So its getting attention, but will that attention change to votes? I'm not so sure. I love it, but I'm definitely on your side of "it's nice, but near certainly not a winner"

[Chrill]

It's almost time, next week we decide the winner.

The excitement levels in Sweden are tepid at best. A lot of protests regarding Israel's involvement in the ESC has led to many locales in Malmö dropping out of the Eurozone parties, and many Swedish and international artists have declined to participate in various events and the show itself. Malmö is spending a lot more money on security than anticipated, so this could be an expensive Eurovision. Still, every single hotel is sold out for the entire week and restaurants will surely have many more guests than usual. Surely the local economy will benefit.

In terms of a winner, still no single entry has clearly taken the lead. Switzerland is the odds favourite, but at the time of writing this they are just 23% likely to win the whole thing. Four nations (Switzerland, Croatia, Netherlands, and Italy) are in the double digits.

To me, this implies that there are no standout entries this year. In Sweden, we would call it a "mellanmjölk" year, meaning "semi-skimmed milk" or, the middle ground. There's nothing particular to be excited about this year. There's no Cha Cha Cha, no Tattoo, no Zitti e Buoni. But hey, the 2014 contest got exciting for that very reason and very few had Conchita Wurst as the winner one week before the show.

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Malmö is spending a lot more money on security than anticipated, so this could be an expensive Eurovision. Still, every single hotel is sold out for the entire week and restaurants will surely have many more guests than usual. Surely the local economy will benefit.

This is something I have wondered before. Hosting large international events is often nothing but a random toss up between a disaster or a blessing for local wallets. The Olympics famously cost some countries far more than they got back, often building entire stadiums & arenas that were used for a few month, before the money runs out and they end up abandoned, or the country and/or local economy simply loses far more than it brought in, even if they can afford the upkeep on new things added for the olympics.
Obviously Eurovision needs no-where near the levels of money as the Olympics, but there are lots of hidden costs to consider, security clearly being a major one for Sweden this year. It makes me wonder if Eurovision is generally good or bad for a country in terms of money.

But hey, the 2014 contest got exciting for that very reason and very few had Conchita Wurst as the winner one week before the show.

I feel this will make it more enjoyable, as often you go into it and you're fairly certain the winner is basically pre-determined, and is just waiting for everyone to pick up the phone & vote for who we all know are going to get voted for. For once I can go into it and genuinely no idea who will make the top 3. Personally I am in favor of Croatia / Rim Tim Tagi Dim, but it might be way too wacky for the judges vote side of things, which was poor Käärijä's undoing last year. I still think he was robbed

[Chrill]

Personally I am in favor of Croatia / Rim Tim Tagi Dim, but it might be way too wacky for the judges vote side of things, which was poor Käärijä's undoing last year. I still think he was robbed

Last year, Käärijä attracted all the "silly" votes. This year, they will be split between Croatia, the Netherlands, Finland, maybe Ireland, possibly Estonia. That means the vote will be split no matter how many like it. If it was not enough last year when everyone rallied behind Finland (even the Swedish jury gave 12 points to Finland, as well as our televote), then it won't work this year.

I think Netherlands and Croatia will both struggle to get into the top five, because they will hurt each other.

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It is prediction time!

So for Semi-Final 1, I'm going to go with the following to qualify in no particular order.

1: Finland: Windows 95 Man - No Rules!
2: Ireland: Bambi Thug - Doomsday Blues
3: Poland: LUNA - The Tower
4: Luxembourg: TALI - Fighter
5: Moldova: Natalia Barbu - In the Middle
6: Australia: Electric Fields - One Milkali
7: Croatia: Baby Lasagne - Rim Tim Tagi Dim
8: Azerbaijan: Fahree & Ilkin Dovlatov - Özünlə apar
9: Cyprus: Silia Lapsis - Liar
10: Ukraine - Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil - Teresa & Maria

Have to say, I'm a little uncertain of this. There's a lot of songs that are in the middle and any could qualify or not.

I'm also glad that Germany pre-qualifies, I really enjoy their act this time around. ISAAK can really belt it out, I'm a little worried its pushing his voice, so hopefully it survives until Saturday.

[Chrill]

I'm warming up to the slightly horrifyng Bambie Thug from Ireland. The song is mad, but their vocals are brilliant. If the performance in Malmö is good enough, they can definitely go far.

and now Europe is. They're 5th in the odds to win the whole thing.

Also, you included Sweden in your list Adam, but we are hosting. We are already qualified

My prediction for tonight is, and I will try to order it by actual scores:

1. Croatia: Baby Lasagne - Rim Tim Tagi Dim
2. Ireland: Bambie Thug - Doomsday Blue
3. Ukraine: Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil - Teresa & Maria
4. Lithuania: - Silvester Belt - Luktelk
5. Finland: Windows95Man - No Rules!
6. Luxembourg: Tali - Fighter
7. Cyprus: Silia Kapsis - Liar
8. Portugal: Iolanda - Grito
9. Serbia: Teya Dora - Ramonda
10. Poland: LUNA - The Tower

"On the bubble" are Australia and Slovenia. I don't see Azerbaijan, Moldova, or Iceland making it.

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Also, you included Sweden in your list Adam, but we are hosting. We are already qualified

Oh good, that gives me a spare one to put Ireland in, seeing as it was the one i said i thought would most qualify but not on my top 10

[Chrill]

Had we been competing in this semi final, I am confident we would be through. I think Sweden will finish near the middle on Saturday, say 10-16 or somewhere thereabouts. If we're in the top half, I will be happy. If we're not, I'm good as long as we're not in the bottom 5. Nobody thinks we'll win this year (hosts very rarely do), but I think our Norwegian duo will do just fine.

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Nobody thinks we'll win this year (hosts very rarely do), but I think our Norwegian duo will do just fine.

I'd agree its not a winning song, but its definitely a good one from the pool this year. They weren't the ones i wanted to win Melodifestivalen, i was a big fan of Chelsea - Controlla, but hey. Sweden voted, i could not. But the one you all chose was certainly still a good one, IMO. I was sad that Controlla was actually way down the position in voting for that heat.

I am surprised to see you've not put Australia as one to go through, for me that was one of the easier choices, but hey historically you do better than me so

I started off absolutely loving Europapa & No Rules!, but i find they're ones that i have quickly tired of, and whilst still in my normal playlist in the car, i often skip passed them when they come up now, where as Rim Tim Tagi Dim especially are still up there for me. I wonder if Europe tends to listen to Eurovision songs as frequently as me, putting them on normal playlists, if so perhaps some songs will suffer that kind of fatigue when the evening comes?

[Chrill]

i was a big fan of Chelsea - Controlla

I literally don't know what song that is. Googling it, I see why I forgot about it. It didn't even qualify I think it's a bit messy, and flat. Her singing is also not great.

You know my favorite NQ from Sweden this year is Scarlet, our own scary witches (although less scary than Ireland!).

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Petra Mede is certainly a popular figure in Sweden. She is getting all the cheers!

[Chrill]

Petra Mede is certainly a popular figure in Sweden. She is getting all the cheers!

She actually is not all that popular in Sweden. I think she is only popular in Eurovision, and most fans are likely from abroad

I did enjoy the production, it was clean and proper. I think the 10 entries selected were reasonable choices. I got 9 out of 10, no? I missed Slovenia, and had Poland instead but Poland was my 10th and last pick.

Also, Eric Saade wearing a keffiyeh around his wrist to show his support to the civilians being bombed in Palestine. I see most of Europe is upset about it, but he IS Palestinian. I don't know what the discourse is around the world, but here in Sweden we are very divided between "Israel has the right to defend themselves" and "Israel are committing war crimes". Nobody is saying Hamas was in the right, but many are saying Israel should not be killing civilians who just happen to live in Gaza. I for one applaud Saade.

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Well, what an absolute hammering my predicition took!

Just 5 correct ones (, , , , ). Might be my worst yet. Let's hope i do better on Thursday.

Speaking of, my predictions for Thursday which based on Tuesday is just a curse on them, again in no particular order.

1: Switzerland: Nemo - The Code
2: Greece: Marina Satti - Zari
3: Belgium: Musti - Before the Party's Over
4: Netherlands: Joost - Europapa
5: Latvia: Dons - Hollow
6: San Marino: Megara - 11:11
7: Armenia: Ladaniva - Jako
8: Georgia: Nuta Buzladze - Firefighter
9: Israel: Eden Golan - Hurricane
10: Norway: Gåte - Ulveham

For positioning when placements are released for the semi-finals, I do expect & to 1st & 2nd, the rest i couldn't even begin to think.

I find this similar to SF1, there's standout ones for me. But several middling ones where its basically a coin toss. But here's hoping i do significantly better than SF1...

[Chrill]

I definitely think you are closer to the truth this time around.

I shall once more venture to predict the actual order.

1: Switzerland: Nemo - The Code
2: Netherlands: Joost Klein - Europapa
3: Israel: Eden Golan - Hurricane
4: Greece: Marina Satti - Zari
5: Georgia: Nutsa Buzaladze - Firefighter
6: Norway: Gåte - Ulveham
7: Belgium: Mustii - Before the Party's Over
8: Armenia: Ladaniva - Jako
9: Austria: Kaleen - We Will Rave
10: Estonia: 5miinust & Puuluup - (Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi

That last one is a mouthful... The only one on the bubble to me is Denmark, I don't see Latvia or San Marino qualifying.

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I don't see Latvia or San Marino qualifying.

Latvia is definitely one that seems to have gone down in peoples ranking overall the closer to the date we got. When it first came out it was fairly well received, but i think a lot of songs have been released since then that overshadowed it.

[Chrill]

Without being alarmist, this could be the final year of Eurovision as we know it.

Israel allegedly won 40% of the Italian televote, since Italian broadcaster RAI showed all the voting numbers on-screen (which they are definitely not allowed to do). 40% out of 16 competitors is absolutely insane, compare it to Ukraine in 2022 who secured roughly 25% of the Italian votes.
Source: https://escbubble.com/2024/05/israel-wo ... landslide/

If the numbers end up valid (EBU or RAI have not yet commented), then Israel is looking at a televote landslide greater than Ukraine in 2022 or Finland in 2023. Only the juries could save Eurovision from what would be the 2nd political winner in just three years after Ukraine won in 2022. This time however, the win would come for a country that many are saying should not even be there. Several countries, including Ireland, Iceland, and Finland already had large calls for boycotts this year merely due to Israeli participation. Would they show up for a contest in Israel in 2025? Would anyone? Would EBU deem it a safe place to host?

If Israel wins this year, and trust me it could happen, then I think the 2025 contest could look much like 1980 Summer Olympics in Moscow which was boycotted by 50 or so countries. It took a while for the Olympics to recover. Can Eurovision?

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Yes, those are definitely alarming. I am surprised that during the confirmation they have a valid result, that didn't get flagged there and then during the SF2 airing, and they just skipped the Italian vote. They've done it in the past, although usually without them vocalising "no the vote is not valid, we have skipped X & Y", it happened a few years ago when some jury votes were slightly suspicious so in the final they got swapped with (something i don't recall offhand).

If it is against the rules to display the % for each song, it is surprising Italy did it, and then also did it with such an obviously suspicious result. It feels like Italy displayed it almost to make some sort of statement. Although with the Italian broadcaster being one of the Big Five in terms of $$$$$, I hope that doesn't stop the EBU from asking a big "bro, wtf?!" and throwing the book at them. There was some pressure from within the UK for Olly Alexander to not attend due to Israels involvement, but it went no where, I know Ireland was a lot more vocal than the UK, and they also attended. I really hope whatever happens this year, Eurovision doesn't suffer long term for it, even if that means EBU make some very big choices and remove Israel at this stage, and bring in the country that was the highest non-qualifier in both SF's

the 2nd political winner in just three years after Ukraine won in 2022.

At least Ukraines win actually had a decent song attached to it, at least in my opinion.

Without being alarmist

Mission failed

In other news, I got 8 out of 10 of my guesses, and I'm actually surprised. Latvia's Dons - Hollow was actually the one i was least confident on in my top 10 for SF2, but they managed to get through. A little sad San Marino didn't get through, but honestly that is mostly because the idea of San Marino winning the whole thing and then trying to host it in their tiny country is amusing to me.

I also feel there is a growing reliance on backing tracks as of the few recent years, instead of it all being live.
Also during the airing of the SF's, they reminded us of Azerbaijans winning song, Running Scared. Must be the most meh winning song of this millennium in Eurovision

[Chrill]

It's far too late to exclude Israel now. There were only really two options going into this year:

1. Exclude Israel based on the same principles that excluded Russia
2. Invite Russia, based on the same principles that let Israel continue to participate

I understand that Hamas invaded Israel, I understand that they took and still keep hostages. But the fact is even Israel themselves state they have killed betwen 13,000 and 20,000 civilians in Gaza since the war began. According to the Gazan health ministry (surely not a reliable source), that number is closer to 35,000 including roughly 15,000 children. No matter how you look at it, killing somewhere between 13,000 and 35,000 civilians in a conflict should exclude you from a competition like Eurovision. In addition, something like 2 million Palestinians are displaced, starving, or under siege.

We can agree Hamas is horrible while at the same time agreeing that Israel's response is horrible too.

I heard someone say that if I am a doctor and my patient's body has a tumor, I treat the body. I do not kick and punch the body to get rid of the tumor, right? Well, Israel is not treating Palestine to remove Hamas, they are kicking and punching Palestine. The tumor will only grow, until the whole body is dead.